1. Select (put the cursor on) a cell whose value you want to vary;
2. Select the “Define Distributions” button on the top left of the screen. Choose a distribution and enter in the min, most likely, and max. Can enter numbers or refer to values on the spreadsheet by giving their cell address. When you’re done select “Close”. For ease of use later color the input cells (the cells you are varying) in yellow.
3. To see how varying that input changes a particular result, select a cell to be the result you want to calculate as a result of varying the input cell. This will be your “output” cell. In the DCF spreadsheet, you want to select (put the cursor on) the stock price cell, and then click “Add Output” at the top left of the screen right beside the “Define Distributions” button.
4. To just throw a few input values in, you click the dice button to the far left of the “Simulation” tab at the top of the page. Every other time you throw the dice you reset to the default value (which is the value listed as the last term in the formula, which you can delete). To click through some values one at a time without resetting to the default hit the dice, and then hit the F9 recalc key to continue drawing input values from the input distribution.
5. To run a Monte Carlo simulation over numerous runs, you need to respecify the output cell by selecting stock price and then clicking on “Add Output”, then you click the “Start Simulation” button in the right-side are of the “Simulation” tab at the top (the button has a picture of a red lognormal distribution). If the output graph does not show while the simulation is running, there’s a small button along the bottom row of the “Simulation” tab that displays the output graph as it runs. You can slide the tail percentages around on the chart when it’s done to look at the tail distributions and the probability of tail events.
6. Once the Monte Carlo is run you can check the values of various draws with buttons in the...